SnowCalendar

The next few weeks

Which days are worth it?

The next 16 days, each one scored the same way as the history: the snow on the ground, what falls on it, and the temperature, wind and rain over the top. Depth is carried forward from the last measured reading, so it is an estimate that drifts the further out you look.

Resort

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How far to trust this

Depth is carried forward, not measured. Each resort's base comes from a real reading: Snowy Hydro at Spencers Creek for Perisher and Thredbo, and the resorts' own snow reports for Falls Creek and Mt Hotham. From there the depth is projected using the forecast, adding about 1.2 cm for every centimetre of snow and taking off about 0.7 cm for each degree-day above freezing. Those numbers are fitted from 5,883 days of measured change in the Victorian archives and checked against the Spencers Creek record, where the typical error is about 2 cm a day. It compounds, so day 14 is a rough guide and nothing more.

Weather forecasts decay. Days one to seven are worth planning around. Beyond about ten days the weather model is showing a tendency, not a day. Those days are faded here for that reason.

Wind is understated. The forecast grid sits at resort elevation but cannot see individual ridges, so exposed lifts will often be windier than shown. Treat a windy reading as a floor, not a ceiling.

Snowmaking is not counted. These are natural cover figures. Resorts make snow, so the groomed runs can be better than the number here suggests, particularly early in the season.